Tucson Market Deep Dive: Where Are Buyers Actually Buying?
Published: December 2025
The headlines often paint the real estate market with a broad brush: "The Market is Cooling" or "Prices are Holding." But real estate is hyper-local. A "Buyer's Market" in the Northwest doesn't help you if you are bidding on a hot property in the East side where inventory is scarce.
We analyzed over 1,300 closed transactions from late 2025 to peel back the layers of the Tucson market. We looked not just at how much homes are selling for, but what specific features, neighborhoods, and price points are driving buyer behavior right now.
- Volume Leader: The $500k - $750k price range is the engine of this market, accounting for 60% of all sales.
- Luxury Slowdown: The $2M+ market has hit a wall, with over 20 months of inventory.
- Feature Premium: Homes with guest houses are commanding a massive $155,000 median price premium.
- New Construction Drag: Brand new homes are sitting on the market twice as long (105 days) as resale homes (49 days).
1. The "Sweet Spot": Price Range Analysis
Understanding absorption rates by price point is critical. The market behaves very differently depending on your budget.
Under $750k: The Seller's Stronghold
The vast majority of buyer activity is concentrated under $750,000. In the $500k–$750k range, we saw nearly 800 sales in the last 6 months. With only 4.5 months of inventory, this segment remains competitive. Buyers here are decisive, and homes are selling in roughly 52 days.
$1M+: The Shift to Buyer Leverage
Once you cross the $1 million mark, the dynamic changes. Inventory builds up, and days on market (DOM) extend. For the ultra-luxury segment ($2M+), the market has ground to a near-halt with 20.8 months of inventory. If you are selling a luxury estate, patience is no longer a virtue—it’s a necessity.
| Price Range | Sold Volume | Inventory (Months) | Avg Days on Market | List-to-Sale Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500k - $750k | 796 Sales | 4.5 Months | 52 Days | 98.3% |
| $750k - $1M | 256 Sales | 5.5 Months | 53 Days | 97.6% |
| $1M - $2M | 231 Sales | 5.4 Months | 62 Days | 96.8% |
| $2M+ | 30 Sales | 20.8 Months | 96 Days | 96.5% |
2. What Do Buyers Want? (The Feature Premium)
We isolated specific property features to see what buyers are willing to pay for. Two amenities stood out: Guest Houses and Pools.
The "Multi-Generational" Bump
The demand for flexible living space is undeniable. Homes with a detached Guest House (Casita) sold for a median price of $830,000, compared to just $675,000 for homes without one. Even adjusting for the extra square footage, the sheer desirability of a guest house pushes these properties to the top of buyer lists.
Pools: A Standard Expectation?
Interestingly, homes with pools did not sell significantly faster than homes without them (55 days vs. 54 days). However, practically, in the higher price points of Tucson, a pool is often considered a baseline expectation rather than a luxury add-on.
| Feature | Median Sold Price | Price Premium | Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Has Guest House | $830,000 | +$155,000 | 9.4% of Sales |
| No Guest House | $675,000 | -- | 90.6% of Sales |
3. New Construction vs. Resale
A surprising trend in the late 2025 data is the sluggishness of new construction sales.
Resale homes are winning the speed war. Existing homes (Resale) are selling in an average of 49 days. Meanwhile, New Construction homes (Built 2024-2025) are languishing on the market for an average of 105 days.
Why? Many buyers today are price-sensitive and unwilling to wait for completion or pay the premium for "brand new" when turn-key resale homes are available for immediate move-in at a lower price point.
4. Neighborhood Watch: Where is the Action?
Total sales volume tells us where the "center of gravity" is for the market. While the Foothills (Area N) has high prices, the Northwest (NW) is the volume king, accounting for over 450 sales in this period.
However, when we look at specific subdivisions, we see pockets of intense activity:
Top Active Communities
- Dove Mountain (Marana): Between Saguaro Reserve, Del Webb, and Los Saguaros, Dove Mountain remains a primary destination for buyers, despite longer days on market (averaging 80-120 days). Buyers here are taking their time to select the perfect lot and floorplan.
- Unsubdivided (The Foothills & Rural Areas): Custom homes on non-HOA lots ("Unsubdivided") remain highly liquid, with 43 sales and a brisk 46-day average market time. The freedom from HOAs is a major selling point.
- Coronado Foothills Estates: A luxury bright spot. With a median price of $775k and a high price-per-sqft ($303), this iconic foothills community is outperforming the general luxury market.
5. Advice for Market Participants
For Buyers
Look at the "Stale" Luxury Inventory: If your budget allows for $1M+, you have incredible leverage right now. There is nearly 2 years of inventory in the $2M+ range. Sellers who have been on the market for 100+ days are likely ready to make a deal.
Don't Overpay for New: With new builds sitting for 3+ months, builders are likely offering significant incentives (rate buy-downs, design center credits) that aren't reflected in the list price. Ask for them.
For Sellers
Pricing is Everything in the NW: If you are in the Northwest (Marana/Oro Valley), you are competing with a lot of inventory. You cannot "test the market" with a high price. Homes priced correctly are selling in 50 days; those that aren't are sitting for 6 months.
Highlight the Casita: If you have a guest house, feature it prominently. It is the single biggest differentiator in the current market and justifies a significant price premium.
Data Source: Tucson Association of Realtors MLS Data (June 18, 2025 – December 17, 2025). Statistics deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Tucson Market Report: Zip Code & Area Breakdown (Late 2025)
Are you wondering which Tucson neighborhoods are still commanding top dollar and which ones are slowing down? We’ve analyzed sales data from June through December 2025 to bring you this detailed breakdown by Zip Code and MLS Area.
📍 Breakdown by Zip Code
The market varies significantly by zip code. Below, we've ranked zip codes from "Hottest" (lowest inventory) to "Coolest" (highest inventory).
| Zip Code | Avg Price | Days on Market | Inventory (Months) | Market Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85716 | $610k | 40 | 2.3 | Seller's Market |
| 85747 | $583k | 55 | 2.9 | Seller's Market |
| 85712 | $703k | 38 | 3.0 | Seller's Market |
| 85748 | $620k | 59 | 3.3 | Seller's Market |
| 85718 | $882k | 60 | 3.7 | Seller's Market |
| 85749 | $797k | 43 | 3.8 | Seller's Market |
| 85704 | $623k | 57 | 3.8 | Seller's Market |
| 85737 | $694k | 47 | 4.3 | Balanced |
| 85750 | $700k | 57 | 4.9 | Balanced |
| 85719 | $641k | 39 | 5.3 | Balanced |
| 85715 | $647k | 37 | 6.3 | Buyer's Market |
| 85755 | $722k | 50 | 6.6 | Buyer's Market |
| 85739 | $585k | 56 | 7.1 | Buyer's Market |
| 85745 | $645k | 48 | 7.4 | Buyer's Market |
| 85658 | $652k | 74 | 7.5 | Buyer's Market |
| 85742 | $650k | 60 | 7.6 | Buyer's Market |
| 85743 | $645k | 63 | 8.7 | Buyer's Market |
| 85705 | $683k | 43 | 9.9 | Buyer's Market |
🗺️ Breakdown by MLS Area
Looking at the broader regions helps identify larger trends. The East side is currently outperforming the West side in terms of sales velocity.
| Area | Region Name | Inventory (Months) | Avg Days on Market | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USE | Upper Southeast | 3.0 | 57 | 🔥 Hot |
| E | East | 3.1 | 52 | 🔥 Hot |
| XNE | Mt. Lemmon / Extreme NE | 3.7 | 77 | 🔥 Hot |
| N | North (Foothills) | 4.1 | 59 | Stable |
| NE | Northeast | 4.4 | 43 | Stable |
| C | Central | 4.6 | 41 | Stable |
| NW | Northwest | 6.4 | 58 | ❄️ Cooling |
| W | West | 8.0 | 52 | ❄️ Cooling |
| S | South | 12.1 | 103 | ❄️ Cold |
💡 Seller FAQ: Specific Market Questions
A: The 85737 zip code (Oro Valley) is currently one of the most balanced and healthy markets in the region. With 4.3 months of inventory, it sits right in the "sweet spot" between a buyer's and seller's market. Homes here are selling faster than the regional average, with just 47 days on market. Sellers are getting nearly their full asking price, with a median list-to-sale ratio of 98.1%.
A: The 85750 zip code (Foothills/Ventana) is currently holding steady with 4.9 months of inventory. This is a balanced market. While homes are taking about 57 days to sell, values remain strong with a median price of roughly $700,000. If you are planning to list, ensure your home is priced competitively, as inventory is slightly higher here than in the neighboring 85718 zip code.
A: Yes, we are seeing a shift. Inventory in 85755 has climbed to 6.6 months, which technically places it in "Buyer's Market" territory. However, demand is still there—116 homes have sold in the last 6 months. Sellers should be prepared for slightly longer listing times (avg 50 days) and should expect buyers to negotiate harder on inspections and closing costs.
A: The Central (85716) and East (85747, 85748) zip codes are seeing the fiercest competition. With inventory levels under 3 months, well-priced homes in these areas often receive multiple offers within the first week.
🎧 Click to Read Full Transcript: Tucson Market Deep Dive (Dec 2025)
Note: This transcript has been edited for clarity and optimized for search engines. It covers the latest Tucson real estate market trends, inventory analysis, and buyer behavior for Late 2025.
[00:00] Introduction: The Tale of Two Markets
Speaker: Welcome back to the market update. Today we are doing a deep dive into the Tucson real estate numbers for late 2025. And the headline here isn't just one story—it's really a tale of two different markets happening at the same time.
Speaker: If you're looking at the data, we're seeing a massive split between the East Side and the West Side. The East side—areas like zip codes 85747 and 85748—is still incredibly hot. We're talking about 3 months of inventory. That is a pure seller's market.
Speaker: But then you look over at the Northwest—Marana, Oro Valley, the 85755 zip code—and it's a different story. Inventory there is creeping up to 6.5 to 7.5 months. That is shifting firmly into buyer's market territory.
[01:15] The Price Bracket Breakdown
Speaker: Let's talk price points, because that's where buyers feel the difference. If you are shopping under $750,000, you probably feel like it's still competitive. And the data backs you up. The absorption rate there is fast—homes are selling in about 50 days.
Speaker: But the luxury market? It's hitting a wall. Once you get above $2 Million, we are sitting on nearly 21 months of inventory. That is a massive amount of supply. If you're a luxury seller, you have to be patient. If you're a luxury buyer, you have all the leverage in the world right now.
[02:30] What Features Are Buyers Paying For?
Speaker: We ran the numbers on features, and one thing stood out more than anything else: Guest Houses.
Speaker: The "Casita Premium" is real. Homes with a guest house are selling for a median price of $830,000 versus just $675,000 for those without. That is a $155,000 premium. Buyers are clearly valuing multi-generational living or income potential right now.
Speaker: Interestingly, pools are less of a "value add" and more of a standard expectation. They don't necessarily speed up the sale, but at certain price points, you just have to have one to compete.
[04:00] New Construction vs. Resale
Speaker: Finally, a quick note on new builds. They are struggling a bit compared to resale. New construction homes are sitting on the market for an average of 105 days. Compare that to resale homes which are moving in just 49 days. Buyers seem to be preferring the "ready-to-go" aspect of existing homes over waiting for new builds, likely due to pricing sensitivity.
[04:50] Summary & Outlook
Speaker: So, the takeaway? If you're in the Northeast, hold your ground on price. If you're in the Northwest, be prepared to negotiate. And if you have a guest house, make sure that is the first thing people see in your listing. Thanks for tuning into this month's deep dive.
