Is It Way Too Early to Predict the 2026 Tucson Housing Market?
You might think it is way too early to predict the 2026 Tucson real estate market. Usually, you would be right. But looking at the data right now, the tea leaves aren't just easy to read—they are practically shouting.
While many pundits are waiting for January to make their calls, the data is already painting a clear picture: The market is weakening, and inventory is king.
If you are asking, "Should I list my home now or wait for the Spring 2026 market?" the answer lies in the numbers below. Waiting likely means entering a market with even more competition than we have today.
The Data: A Steep Climb in Competition
Sellers who are stuck in the mindset of 2023 are finding themselves frustrated. We are seeing a sharp increase in inventory that is outpacing buyer demand.
Here is the real-time snapshot of the Tucson Metro market:
| Market Metric | 18 Months Ago | 3 Months Ago | Current (Dec 2025) | The 2026 Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Homes for Sale | ~4,000 | ~5,000 | 5,441 | 🔴 Continuing to Rise |
| Active Foreclosures | ~0 | -- | 40 | 🔴 Sign of Distress |
| Price Trajectory | Stable/Rising | Flattening | Declining | 🔴 Weakening |
The Takeaway:
There are currently 5,441 active homes on the market. That is a massive jump from 18 months ago. If you wait until deeper into 2026, you risk burying your listing in an even larger pile of inventory.
Why "List and Pray" Has Stopped Working
We are getting regular calls from sellers who had their homes on the market for 6 months with other agents and saw zero results. They are confused and frustrated.
The reality is that the "List and Pray" method—putting a sign in the yard and hoping for the best—is dead. With 40 active foreclosures (up from near zero recently), distress is creeping back into the market. Sellers without a strategic business plan are floundering because buyers have too many other options to choose from.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Here are the honest answers to the questions we are hearing daily from Tucson sellers.
1. Should I renovate my kitchen before listing in 2026?
Be very careful. In a weakening market with declining prices, you rarely get a dollar-for-dollar return on major renovations. If you over-improve a home in a neighborhood where prices are softening, you might just lose money. Instead of a $50k remodel, we often recommend targeted "high-yield" cosmetic fixes that improve show-readiness without breaking the bank.
2. How long will it take to sell my home?
The days of selling in a weekend are largely behind us. With inventory over 5,400, "Days on Market" (DOM) is stretching out. However, homes that are priced correctly from day one are still moving. If you price high expecting to negotiate later, you risk becoming one of those "stale" listings that sits for 6 months.
3. Is selling to an "Instant Offer" company (iBuyer) a safer bet?
When the market weakens, iBuyers typically tighten their buy boxes and charge higher service fees to hedge their risk. While it’s tempting to want a "guaranteed" offer, you will likely leave significant equity on the table compared to an open market sale—even in a cooling market.
4. Will the 2026 Spring Market bring higher prices?
It is statistically unlikely given the current trend. When inventory builds up in the winter (as it is doing now with 5,441 listings), that carry-over inventory floods the spring market, creating a supply glut. Waiting for spring often means competing with every other seller who had the same idea.
5. Why are prices declining if inventory is high?
Supply and demand. When you have 5,441 sellers competing for a smaller pool of buyers (due to rates or economic uncertainty), prices naturally soften. Sellers are having to price aggressively to capture attention.
Stop Floundering. Get a Business Plan.
The market hasn't crashed, but it has changed. You can still sell for a great price, but you cannot do it by accident. You need a Strategic Sale Business Plan that accounts for your specific neighborhood competition and the 2026 economic landscape.
Don't let your home sit for 6 months. Let's build a strategy that works.
Ready to see the data for your neighborhood?
👉 Click Here to Contact Us for a Strategy Session
📞 Or call us directly: 520-800-8922
🎧 Read the Full Transcript: Tucson Market Forecast (Early 2026 Update)
Note: This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and readability while maintaining the speaker's original insights.
Michael Oliver (0:00):Is it too early to predict the 2026 Tucson real estate and housing market? We'll find out. I'm Michael Oliver with Oliver Realty, and we've been looking at a lot of the trends that we're seeing.
Number one is inventory is rising pretty quickly. We're at 5,441 active homes for sale. About three or four months ago, we were barely hitting 5,000. So that is almost a 10% increase in less than 90 days. That being the case, we're starting to see a lot more sluggishness in the actual marketplace with buyers either pulling back entirely out of the market, or the buyers that are in the market are looking for much better deals, looking longer, or looking harder.
The Return of Foreclosures (0:52):One other thing that we're paying attention to—not something to be too alarmed about, but to pay attention to—is active foreclosures. There are currently 40 of those. Maybe 18 months ago, there was virtually none. So we're starting to see those populate.
The banks are being very aggressive on pricing. I've seen a lot of banks cut prices pretty aggressively to move that inventory. It seems like they're not too interested in letting foreclosures pile up, which is good, but it does create a very soft real estate market in those neighborhoods where a foreclosure is on the market.
The Core Question: List Now or Wait? (1:36):That brings us to our main question: Is now a good time to list a home for sale, or should I wait? I think it comes down to: do you know you're going to be selling your home? Maybe you need to downsize, there's a job opportunity, or you're just tired of living in the Tucson area. If you know you're going to be selling, and your goal is to sell for the highest pricing possible, then sooner is better.
We've been in a declining market in the Tucson Metro for at least 18 to 24 months. The high end of the market ($1 Million+) is still moving pretty good. But there is a lot of weakness in the $350k to $600k price point. Interest rates and competition mean there are a lot of homes for sale coming on the market. In that price bracket, you definitely want to price aggressively and get on the market sooner rather than later.
The "Expired Listing" Epidemic (2:45):We're actually getting phone calls—and this is the first time in maybe 7 to 10 years—from people saying, "Hey, I had my home listed for 6 months... it hasn't sold, the listing is expired... I really need a plan."
We are meeting with those sellers every day this week. That is a first. Back in 2010 through 2015, those conversations were common. But since 2019, I haven't had that conversation very often. Sellers are aware. They see their neighbors not selling. They see the price cuts. They see a house listed for $800k cut to $750k, then $700k, and sell for $650k.
Q&A: Should I Renovate Before Listing? (5:45):One big question we get: "Should I renovate my kitchen or bathroom before listing in 2026?"
My simple advice: I would not invest more money into a property right now unless there is something wrong. If the cabinets are falling off the wall, fix them. But if the kitchen is from 2000 and it's decent? Sell what you have. The discount buyers will ask for is usually less than the cost of a full renovation right now.
Q&A: Will 2026 Bring Higher Prices? (7:05):Usually, people think Spring is the selling season so prices go up. I do not think that's going to happen this year. I think the Spring, Summer, and Fall markets will be slightly sluggish. The higher price points are probably going to start slowing down.
There is no rule that says Spring brings higher prices. In a soft market, the "Spring Bump" often doesn't happen because inventory floods the market. If you are in a high-demand district (like Sam Hughes or Catalina Foothills), there is always demand. But the further out you go—Rancho Sahuarita, Vail, etc.—the weaker the pricing is getting.
The Oliver Realty Difference (9:30):Interestingly enough, we just compiled our numbers. Oliver Realty beat the market averages for the year. Our average sale price was quite a bit higher than the MLS average, and the amount of money our sellers had to negotiate off the list price was far less than the average.
If you have questions about your specific home, give us a call at 520-800-8922 or visit OliverRealty.net.
